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Assessments
Structured human-outcome assessment and causal pathway analysis.
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Assessment Overview
A — Decision & Alternatives
Define the decision, feasible alternatives, and the explicit reference counterfactual used for comparison.
A1 · Decision Definition
A2 · Alternatives
Alternatives are candidate courses of action. The reference counterfactual is defined separately below.
A3 · Reference Counterfactual
Describe the most plausible comparison world if the decision is not implemented. “No action” does not necessarily mean “no change.”
B — People & World-State Change
Define who may be affected, what changes in the world, and which populations are exposed to those changes.
B1 · Affected Populations
Identify materially relevant populations and make the assessment boundary explicit.
B2 · World-State Changes
Record intermediate changes in conditions. A world-state change is not automatically a human outcome.
B3 · Population–Change Relationships
Connect populations to the world-state changes they may experience. This establishes exposure; it does not yet assert a HOM outcome.
C — HOM Screening
Screen each population–change relationship separately for plausible favorable and adverse material pathways.
D — Pathways & Evidence
Build explicit causal pathways from screened population–change relationships to HOM outcomes. D1 creates pathway records. D2 adds ordered causal nodes. D3 records explicit causal claims between nodes. D4 attaches evidence to specific causal links.
D0 · Module C Screening Disposition
Trace each eligible Module C screening result into Module D. Existing D1 pathways are recognized as Pathway Developed.
D1 · Causal Pathways
Create a pathway only where a plausible or uncertain material pathway was identified in Module C.
D2 · Pathway Nodes
Build the ordered causal states within a selected pathway. Nodes describe states or mechanisms; causal claims between them will be recorded as links in D3.
D3 · Causal Links
Record the causal claim represented by each arrow between pathway nodes. Evidence will attach to these links in D4.
D4 · Evidence
Attach evidence to a specific causal link. Adding evidence does not automatically change the link support state.
E — Human-Outcome & Population Comparison
Characterize valid Human Outcomes from Module D and compare how outcomes are distributed across affected populations. Module E does not replace or repeat the causal analysis in Module D.
E1 · Outcome Register
Valid Human Outcome endpoints are populated automatically from Module D.
E2 · Outcome Characterization
Characterize each valid Human Outcome for expected magnitude, population reach, duration, and confidence.
E3/E4 · Population Comparison, Distribution & Tradeoffs
A comparison is required only where two or more valid Human Outcomes occur within the same HOM dimension.